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1 February 2012
Mitt Romney’s big victory in the Florida Primary cements his position as the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. It also confirms that the debates among Republicans will continue. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul have all vowed to stay in the race. They have the money and the organization to do this. They also have the committed followers to make it possible.
Romney’s big win contains a big weakness. Adding the total votes in Florida, almost as many Republicans voted against Romney as those who voted for him. In a state that strongly favors his organization and money, he could not convince a majority of the voters in his party that he should be their nominee. More than 50 percent of those who went to the polls do not think he is sufficiently conservative, Christian, or charismatic for their tastes. More than 50 percent of those who went to the polls still want someone other than Romney as the Republican challenger to President Barack Obama.
These anti-Romney sentiments remain very strong. They will not go away. Even if he manages to get the Republican nomination, Romney will have a very difficult time unifying his party. He will also have trouble telling his followers the tough things they need to hear: defense spending must decrease, entitlement programs must be limited, and the federal government must raise new tax revenues. A shaky Republican leader like Romney has little leverage to sell these necessities. He cannot accept these policies and still assure his followers of his conservative credentials – as Richard Nixon did when opening relations with Communist China, or Ronald Reagan did when reducing the size of the nation’s nuclear arsenal.
What, then, should we expect before the “Super Tuesday” collection of 10 state primaries on March 6? First, the Republican race will get nastier. Gingrich and Santorum will continue to attack Romney, accusing him of selling-out conservatism. Romney will continue to attack back, as he did in Florida. The race will become more ideological and personal. It will become less substantive in its attention to policy.
Second, talk of alternative candidates will continue. Republicans will look longingly at Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Romney will have to choreograph a difficult dance as he tries to court these figures while he also attempts to appeal to a more extreme “Tea Party” faction.
Third, and most significant, the Republicans will continue to cede the national debate about the future of the American economy and the needs of American national security to President Obama. Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul will criticize the White House, but they will not have the time or the inclination to offer meaty policy alternatives. This circumstance will allow Obama to push forward with his own agenda of targeted budget cuts and protection for core social programs (like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.) Obama will re-direct American military power from Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran and East Asia. Republican in-fighting will give these and other Obama policies some freedom of maneuver. The President, not his Republican challengers, will remain the main agenda-setter for national policy debates.
We are witnessing the messiness of the democratic process, but we are also learning the limits of our present two-party system. The nomination process is forestalling the great debate about economy and security that we should have during this crucial election year. Money and extremism are driving too much of the process. The time has indeed come for another renewal of our democracy. As in 1800, 1828, 1860, 1912, 1932, and 1980, the United States is ripe for the emergence of a figure who will shake things up and draw new party lines.
Who will play this role? How will a party realignment occur? We will get clearer answers to these questions if, after Super Tuesday, the Republican Party remains unable to rally behind a candidate. The most interesting politics are ahead of us.
This blog post originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, history, Teaching | 
Tags: election, Floriday, Gingrich, Obama, parties, partisan, party, Paul, primary, reform, Republican, Romney, Santorum, Super Tuesday | 
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22 January 2012
Newt Gingrich’s victory in the South Carolina Primary exposes a fact that Republicans have tried to hide. The party of Lincoln, Eisenhower, and Reagan does not have a credible candidate to challenge President Barack Obama. This is ironic considering President Obama’s profound vulnerabilities. He is not very popular. Unfortunately for Republicans, their party has clearly failed to promote a candidate who can mobilize people for an alternative. South Carolina proved that none of the Republican candidates can build a consensus in their own party. They have no chance with a much larger and far more diverse national electorate.
It is hard to see how any of the four remaining Republican candidates can secure the party’s nomination. Gingrich won South Carolina among extreme partisans in one of the country’s poorest states. He faces irreconcilable opposition from the establishment and mainstream of the party. No one who has observed his erratic behavior up-close, particularly during his ignominious period as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, will tolerate a replay of that nightmare. Although Gingrich can rant about his opponents, his appeal is confined to extremes.
The same can be said for Rick Santorum. He, of course, appeals to the most religious parts of the Republican party. He has little following beyond that. South Carolina also showed that religious voters will frequently privilege other issues in these difficult economic times. Santorum’s followers are motivated, but they are a distinct minority, even among strong Republican loyalists.
Mitt Romney has the money, the experience, and the mainstream credentials to be the candidate many observers would expect to capture the imagination of those who want to defeat Obama and elect a Republican president. The primaries and caucuses have shown, however, that Romney’s appeal is capped at around 25 percent of Republican voters. The rest of the party simply does not trust him to be a true conservative, rather than a moderate or a compromiser or even a pragmatist. Romney’s Mormon faith does not help with those who seek a “trusted Christian” in office.
Ron Paul is the most authentic candidate and he has the most loyal following among young voters. He is also consistently the most interesting, if misguided, presidential hopeful to hear. Paul will stay in the race, but he is a fringe candidate. He has potential as a gadfly and a spoiler; not a nominee.
This analysis means that the battle for the Republican presidential nomination will continue…probably until the party convention in late August 2012. The Democrats obviously know their nominee, but the Republicans will not have one all summer. They are likely to enter their convention deadlocked, divided, and very disoriented.
Although party conventions without a clear nominee have not occurred in recent memory, they have a long history. Before the Second World War they were, in fact, the norm. Party nominees emerged from long summer days of debate, longer nights of horse-trading, and smoke-filled rooms of hard-nosed deliberation. The party elders, not the rank-and-file, made the final choices. The outcomes were unpredictable. Most of all, new names came forward as the obvious candidates could not gain enough support.
Expect the same from the Republican nomination process this year. There is a good chance that none of the four remaining party candidates will be the final nominee. Someone else will emerge during the coming months. In desperation, the Republican Party will look to draft prominent figures with broad appeal who have stayed on the sidelines. Yes, we will hear a lot more about Chris Christie of New Jersey, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Michael Bloomberg of New York, and even…former Florida governor, Jeb Bush.
Fasten your seat belts. This wild election season has only just begun.
This blog post originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, history, Teaching | Tags: Bush, Christie, convention, Daniels, election, Florida, Gingrich, Paul, president, Republican, Romney, Santorum, South Carolina | No Comments »
Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-building from the Founders to Obama (Free Press/Simon & Schuster, Fall 2011)
Americans are a nation-building people, and in Liberty’s Surest Guardian, Jeremi Suri looks to America’s history to see both what it has to offer to failed states around the world and what it should avoid.
More at the book website >
Jeremi Suri is the Mack Brown Distinguished Professor for Global Leadership, History, and Public Policy at the University of Texas at Austin. He is the author of five books on contemporary politics and foreign policy. In September 2011 he will publish a new book on the past and future of nation-building: Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama. Professor Suri's research and teaching have received numerous prizes. In 2007 Smithsonian Magazine named him one of America's "Top Young Innovators" in the Arts and Sciences. His writings appear widely in blogs and print media. Professor Suri is also a frequent public lecturer and guest on radio and television programs.