Posts Tagged ‘Foreign Policy’
21 August 2011
The downfall of Moammar Gadhafi’s repressive, corrupt, and terroristic regime in Libya is worthy of celebration. For forty-two years this man and his family held the people of Libya hostage. For forty-two years this tyrant supported fellow dictators throughout the region. For forty-two years, this exponent of violence encouraged waves of terrorism directed at innocent civilians in the United States, Western Europe, Israel, and other countries. Gadhafi’s overthrow is a rare piece of good news during what has been a summer of economic and political despair.
The next steps in Libya remain unclear. The rebel forces, based largely in the Eastern part of the country, are not united in their political goals. They have no real experience with governance, and they are not representative of the long-battered population as a whole. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has provided the rebels with air support, supplies, and some political guidance since March 19, but this relationship has been far from smooth. The end of Gadhafi is not the beginning of democracy or anything close to that.
Cheers for Libya’s liberation should not inspire claims of “victory” or naive statements about “democracy on the march.” Americans, in particular, must learn that there is a lot in-between Gadhafi-like despotism and the democracy we take for granted. Libya has moved into that vague space of “transition,” and it brings many opportunities and challenges that deserve our close attention.
1. Who will distribute water, electricity, food, and other necessities? The mid-level managers of Gadhafi’s regime are the people who know how to accomplish these tasks. They are actually pretty good at their jobs. The rebels do not have the requisite experience to take over basic societal management. The NATO allies and the United Nations should work to encourage cooperation between Gadhafi-regime mid-level managers and the new rebel government. Prosecute Gadhafi, his family, and their high-level advisors. Do not purge beyond that. Please no replay of de-Bathification in Iraq!
2. Who will take control of Libya’s vast wealth in cash, oil, and other commodities? This is a country with extraordinary resource endowments, despite its abject poverty. Unlike Afghanistan, Libya suffers from the classic “resource curse” where a few elites, like Gadhafi, hoard all the wealth. The NATO allies and the United Nations must encourage a process of wealth sharing among tribes, groups, and citizens. The wealth should be accounted for in transparent ways, it should be shared, and it should be invested in the society. Americans, in particular, must avoid the temptation to support a new strongman who will simply take all the money. No Hamid Karzai for Libya, please! Economic distribution is actually more important than political unity. Building transparent institutions for banking and investment should be a very high priority.
3. Where are the Saudis and the Iranians? America’s chief Arab ally in the Middle East (Saudi Arabia) and America’s leading regional adversary (Iran) are both poised to step into the political vacuum created by Gadhafi’s removal. NATO and the UN cannot allow this to happen. The Saudis will move to create another dictatorial regime which assures the stable flow of oil, without broader political participation. This will be a recipe for renewed violence and civil war. The Iranians will seek to turn Libya into yet another arena for their regional expansion, including attacks on American and West European interests. This will be a recipe for increased conflict throughout the Middle East. The United States, in particular, must put a strong effort into dual containment: keep both the Saudis and the Iranians out. This will require some calibrated threats from Washington, and persuasive diplomacy.
As in every case of regime overthrow and nation-building, the moment of liberation is also the moment of renewed challenges. Libya has a very long way to go, and no one outside the country (including the United States) can lead the long-suffering society to an assured future. The choice is not between direct intervention or benign neglect. The real opportunity is to put the hard-earned wisdom of nation-building over the last century to work with intelligent actions calibrated to limited purposes.
The international community has the ability to encourage good choices in post-Gadhafi Libya. The United States, among others, can help by devoting serious attention to the basic needs, wealth distribution, and geopolitical threats confronting Libya. American actions should include a restrained but serious mix of aid, advice, and very selective armed activity. Above all, President Obama should praise the courage of Libyans who have liberated themselves, and promise them that the international community will do whatever it can to help them help themselves in coming days. That is, in fact, what nation-building is all about.
This blog post originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, history, Kissinger, Teaching | 
Tags: dictator, Foreign Policy, Gaddafi, Gadhafi, Libya, NATO, Quadafi, Quaddafi, Tripoli, UN | 
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30 April 2011
The Middle East has entered a period of rapid change. Two long-standing dictatorships, in Egypt and Tunisia, have collapsed in the wake of widespread protests. Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi confronts a rebellion that has split his repressive regime, and elicited international military support. Leaders in Syria, Yemen, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and other countries are contending with angry crowds each day. The governments in Syria and Bahrain have been especially brutal in their deployment of violent force against demonstrators, but it appears unlikely they can squash the movements in their countries. The Iranian government, which confronted its own internal “green” revolution in 2009, is nervously observing all of these events, contributing in the case of Syria to the forces of repression.
What should the United States and its NATO allies do about all of these events? The air attacks against Gaddafi’s forces in Libya and the proposed economic sanctions on Syria have been the policy options of choice. They reflect a commitment to support participatory change in the region, penalizing those who most violently stand in the way. At the same time, the United States and its NATO allies have encouraged calibrated, orderly change. In the case of Egypt, this meant encouraging dictator Hosni Mubarak to resign, but also supporting a transitional military government in his place. In Yemen, the U.S. and its allies have requested dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh’s resignation through a negotiated power transition that involves multiple groups.
Mixed Results
So far, these mixed actions have produced mixed results. The public demonstrations have continued, and if anything, spread throughout the region. The protesters are not necessarily pro-Western, but they appear free from the religious extremism and terroristic impulses that frighten foreigners. The young men and women in the streets, it seems, simply want more control over their governments. They want to focus on developing their societies, not attacking foreigners or institutionalizing a hateful ideology.
Unfortunately, the forces of repression have remained resilient in the shadow of the protests. Gaddafi continues to field a formidable army against the rebels in Libya. Syria’s military appears loyal to dictator, Bashar al-Assad, and comfortable firing upon unruly civilians. The Saudis have sent military aid to the embattled regime in Bahrain. Iran, one of strongest military powers in the region, is sending armed support to its allies. Most unsettling, regional instability has contributed to Israeli insecurity, and preparations for Israeli military action if popular energies turn on the Jewish state, as they have in the past.
The next steps for American and allied policy-makers are not clear. Cautious policies that encourage participatory reform within an orderly framework seem most sensible. Mixed policies that are attentive to particular national circumstances, and unpredictable developments, are necessary. Even the most powerful foreign actors have very limited influence in the Middle East right now.
Information Openness
There is, however, one step that American, Canadian, and European leaders should consider. The repressive forces in the Middle East assert their power through the control of information. They systematically misinform and isolate their populations. They continuously circulate self-serving propaganda. New social media and the Internet have challenged the rulers’ monopoly on information in recent years, but restrictions on communication remain considerable in many of the regimes. The United States can help to change that with a determined and focused policy of information openness.
A policy of information openness would draw on similar efforts in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. On that model, the American, Canadian, and European governments should coordinate the following activities:
1. A firm and unequivocal statement that they oppose political censorship in all cases. They should pledge to condemn all government efforts to control the free circulation of news in the region.
2. A serious effort to sponsor alternative news sources for citizens in the Middle East. This means aid, direct and indirect, for circulators of news inside the region. It also means the creation of new external organizations (including radio, Internet, and social media) led by Middle East emigres to inform citizens of the region. Foreign societies must do more to send fair information into the region.
3. A commitment to partnerships with Middle East-based groups that also support the free flow of information. In this sense, American, Canadian, and European governments should forge more supportive connections with Al-Jazeera and its counterparts.
4. An intensive set of government-sponsored training programs for journalists from the Middle East, and Westerners who are interested in becoming serious contributors to the circulation of news in the region. Language-training, skill development, ethical instruction, and help with the formation of support groups is crucial for the expanded exchange of information in the unstable circumstances of the contemporary Middle East.
The United States and its allies have their own problems with the circulation of fair and informative news in their societies. We are far from perfect. Nonetheless, the Western experience with a free press is one of the strongest hinges for political participation, innovation, and stability on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. The time has come to make support for a free press the centerpiece of Middle East foreign policy.
This blog originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, history, Teaching | Tags: Bahrain, Canada, communication, Egypt, EU, Europe, Foreign Policy, free press, information, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, jouralist, journalism, Libya, Middle East, newspaper, openness, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, United States | Comments Closed
Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-building from the Founders to Obama (Free Press/Simon & Schuster, Fall 2011)
Americans are a nation-building people, and in Liberty’s Surest Guardian, Jeremi Suri looks to America’s history to see both what it has to offer to failed states around the world and what it should avoid.
More at the book website >
Jeremi Suri is the Mack Brown Distinguished Professor for Global Leadership, History, and Public Policy at the University of Texas at Austin. He is the author of five books on contemporary politics and foreign policy. In September 2011 he will publish a new book on the past and future of nation-building: Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama. Professor Suri's research and teaching have received numerous prizes. In 2007 Smithsonian Magazine named him one of America's "Top Young Innovators" in the Arts and Sciences. His writings appear widely in blogs and print media. Professor Suri is also a frequent public lecturer and guest on radio and television programs.