Posts Tagged ‘Paul’
7 March 2012
Mitt Romney’s victories in six of the ten Republican primaries on “Super Tuesday” solidified his position as the leader in his party’s race for the presidential nomination, but it also confirmed his weaknesses. He did not win decisively where it counted, especially in the battleground state of Ohio, where Romney edged Rick Santorum by one percent and only a little more than 10,000 votes. Santorum also generated enthusiastic victories in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and North Dakota. Newt Gingrich won his home state of Georgia. Romney continues to confront strong Republican opposition to his candidacy, and his challengers will surely remain in the race through the early summer. Romney’s delegate count remains low at 404: far from the 1,144 he needs to lock up control of the Republican nomination and avoid a deadlocked convention in August.
So, the show will go on. Expect many more weeks of attacks and counter-attacks around red meat topics that have little connection to the real policy issues confronting our country. Santorum will continue to attack Romney’s religion. Romney will criticize Santorum’s preparation for office. Gingrich will surely announce more superficial “big think” schemes for space travel, and Ron Paul will find more government offices to attack. All the while President Barack Obama will sit and watch, avoiding any substantive public statements about the difficult choices we must make as a society concerning long-term entitlement spending, taxation policy, and national security. The extended Republican primaries will prolong our present political limbo.
The state of Texas will hold its Republican primary on May 29. This could be an opportunity to change the race. Like all states, Texas has deep political divisions, but it also has a strong can-do entrepreneurial spirit. That is, after all, what separates the Lone Star state and its pioneering history from many other parts of the country. Led by businesspeople, activists, and even professors, the citizens of the state could demand some serious answers from the candidates: What are our domestic priorities and how are we going to pay for them? How are we going to restore and improve American international competitiveness? What are the essential elements of American national security, and what are the excesses we can do without? What is our inclusive and hopeful national vision for the next 5-10 years?
John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and Ronald Reagan answered these questions in compelling terms when they campaigned in Texas. That is why they won their presidential bids. That is how they changed our nation. The time has come for voters in Texas and other big states to throw around their weight again. Let’s reject the wedge issues and focus on what really counts. Let’s drop the small stuff and demand attention to the crucial priorities that will determine the progress of our nation’s economy, society, and security. In this contested and confused presidential election season, bigger is better.
This blog post originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, history | 
Tags: convention, election, Gingrich, party, Paul, president, presidential, primary, Republican, Romney, Santorum, Super Tuesday | 
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1 February 2012
Mitt Romney’s big victory in the Florida Primary cements his position as the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination. It also confirms that the debates among Republicans will continue. Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul have all vowed to stay in the race. They have the money and the organization to do this. They also have the committed followers to make it possible.
Romney’s big win contains a big weakness. Adding the total votes in Florida, almost as many Republicans voted against Romney as those who voted for him. In a state that strongly favors his organization and money, he could not convince a majority of the voters in his party that he should be their nominee. More than 50 percent of those who went to the polls do not think he is sufficiently conservative, Christian, or charismatic for their tastes. More than 50 percent of those who went to the polls still want someone other than Romney as the Republican challenger to President Barack Obama.
These anti-Romney sentiments remain very strong. They will not go away. Even if he manages to get the Republican nomination, Romney will have a very difficult time unifying his party. He will also have trouble telling his followers the tough things they need to hear: defense spending must decrease, entitlement programs must be limited, and the federal government must raise new tax revenues. A shaky Republican leader like Romney has little leverage to sell these necessities. He cannot accept these policies and still assure his followers of his conservative credentials – as Richard Nixon did when opening relations with Communist China, or Ronald Reagan did when reducing the size of the nation’s nuclear arsenal.
What, then, should we expect before the “Super Tuesday” collection of 10 state primaries on March 6? First, the Republican race will get nastier. Gingrich and Santorum will continue to attack Romney, accusing him of selling-out conservatism. Romney will continue to attack back, as he did in Florida. The race will become more ideological and personal. It will become less substantive in its attention to policy.
Second, talk of alternative candidates will continue. Republicans will look longingly at Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, and former Florida Governor Jeb Bush. Romney will have to choreograph a difficult dance as he tries to court these figures while he also attempts to appeal to a more extreme “Tea Party” faction.
Third, and most significant, the Republicans will continue to cede the national debate about the future of the American economy and the needs of American national security to President Obama. Romney, Gingrich, Santorum, and Paul will criticize the White House, but they will not have the time or the inclination to offer meaty policy alternatives. This circumstance will allow Obama to push forward with his own agenda of targeted budget cuts and protection for core social programs (like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid.) Obama will re-direct American military power from Iraq and Afghanistan to Iran and East Asia. Republican in-fighting will give these and other Obama policies some freedom of maneuver. The President, not his Republican challengers, will remain the main agenda-setter for national policy debates.
We are witnessing the messiness of the democratic process, but we are also learning the limits of our present two-party system. The nomination process is forestalling the great debate about economy and security that we should have during this crucial election year. Money and extremism are driving too much of the process. The time has indeed come for another renewal of our democracy. As in 1800, 1828, 1860, 1912, 1932, and 1980, the United States is ripe for the emergence of a figure who will shake things up and draw new party lines.
Who will play this role? How will a party realignment occur? We will get clearer answers to these questions if, after Super Tuesday, the Republican Party remains unable to rally behind a candidate. The most interesting politics are ahead of us.
This blog post originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, history, Teaching | Tags: election, Floriday, Gingrich, Obama, parties, partisan, party, Paul, primary, reform, Republican, Romney, Santorum, Super Tuesday | Comments Closed
Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-building from the Founders to Obama (Free Press/Simon & Schuster, Fall 2011)
Americans are a nation-building people, and in Liberty’s Surest Guardian, Jeremi Suri looks to America’s history to see both what it has to offer to failed states around the world and what it should avoid.
More at the book website >
Jeremi Suri is the Mack Brown Distinguished Professor for Global Leadership, History, and Public Policy at the University of Texas at Austin. He is the author of five books on contemporary politics and foreign policy. In September 2011 he will publish a new book on the past and future of nation-building: Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama. Professor Suri's research and teaching have received numerous prizes. In 2007 Smithsonian Magazine named him one of America's "Top Young Innovators" in the Arts and Sciences. His writings appear widely in blogs and print media. Professor Suri is also a frequent public lecturer and guest on radio and television programs.