Posts Tagged ‘Republican’
22 January 2012
Newt Gingrich’s victory in the South Carolina Primary exposes a fact that Republicans have tried to hide. The party of Lincoln, Eisenhower, and Reagan does not have a credible candidate to challenge President Barack Obama. This is ironic considering President Obama’s profound vulnerabilities. He is not very popular. Unfortunately for Republicans, their party has clearly failed to promote a candidate who can mobilize people for an alternative. South Carolina proved that none of the Republican candidates can build a consensus in their own party. They have no chance with a much larger and far more diverse national electorate.
It is hard to see how any of the four remaining Republican candidates can secure the party’s nomination. Gingrich won South Carolina among extreme partisans in one of the country’s poorest states. He faces irreconcilable opposition from the establishment and mainstream of the party. No one who has observed his erratic behavior up-close, particularly during his ignominious period as Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, will tolerate a replay of that nightmare. Although Gingrich can rant about his opponents, his appeal is confined to extremes.
The same can be said for Rick Santorum. He, of course, appeals to the most religious parts of the Republican party. He has little following beyond that. South Carolina also showed that religious voters will frequently privilege other issues in these difficult economic times. Santorum’s followers are motivated, but they are a distinct minority, even among strong Republican loyalists.
Mitt Romney has the money, the experience, and the mainstream credentials to be the candidate many observers would expect to capture the imagination of those who want to defeat Obama and elect a Republican president. The primaries and caucuses have shown, however, that Romney’s appeal is capped at around 25 percent of Republican voters. The rest of the party simply does not trust him to be a true conservative, rather than a moderate or a compromiser or even a pragmatist. Romney’s Mormon faith does not help with those who seek a “trusted Christian” in office.
Ron Paul is the most authentic candidate and he has the most loyal following among young voters. He is also consistently the most interesting, if misguided, presidential hopeful to hear. Paul will stay in the race, but he is a fringe candidate. He has potential as a gadfly and a spoiler; not a nominee.
This analysis means that the battle for the Republican presidential nomination will continue…probably until the party convention in late August 2012. The Democrats obviously know their nominee, but the Republicans will not have one all summer. They are likely to enter their convention deadlocked, divided, and very disoriented.
Although party conventions without a clear nominee have not occurred in recent memory, they have a long history. Before the Second World War they were, in fact, the norm. Party nominees emerged from long summer days of debate, longer nights of horse-trading, and smoke-filled rooms of hard-nosed deliberation. The party elders, not the rank-and-file, made the final choices. The outcomes were unpredictable. Most of all, new names came forward as the obvious candidates could not gain enough support.
Expect the same from the Republican nomination process this year. There is a good chance that none of the four remaining party candidates will be the final nominee. Someone else will emerge during the coming months. In desperation, the Republican Party will look to draft prominent figures with broad appeal who have stayed on the sidelines. Yes, we will hear a lot more about Chris Christie of New Jersey, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, Michael Bloomberg of New York, and even…former Florida governor, Jeb Bush.
Fasten your seat belts. This wild election season has only just begun.
This blog post originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, history, Teaching | 
Tags: Bush, Christie, convention, Daniels, election, Florida, Gingrich, Paul, president, Republican, Romney, Santorum, South Carolina | 
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14 November 2011
Leadership, like all historical phenomena, moves in cycles. Periods of boldness (think of the 1940s, the 1980s, and the early 2000s) are followed by years of very limited horizons (think of the 1950s, the 1970s, and the 1990s.) We are living today in a time of terrible self-constraint. Our leaders face difficult economic, political and military challenges, but they are no worse than what their predecessors confronted. Remember the Great Depression, the Second World War, even the oil shocks and Vietnam War of the early 1970s? The problem today is that our leaders remain stuck in the low cycle of self-limitation. They just cannot manage to think big and turn our crises into opportunities.
What does this mean? If the history of the last century proves anything, it is that careful management of crises and political “muddling through” can only get you so far. The great leaders who made serious contributions to human betterment took calculated, bold risks in exactly the kinds of circumstances we face today. Franklin Roosevelt did not try to “manage” the Great Depression as Herbert Hoover had done; he took risks to transform the American (and world) economy. Winston Churchill did not try to “manage” British decline in the face of German Fascism; he rallied his people to rebuild their military and their empire. Ronald Reagan did not try to “manage” the Cold War; to the consternation of his advisors, he imagined and pursued a new form for superpower relations. Great challenges require grand visions, with a tolerance for some risk-taking.
Our global problems have become worse in the last year because our leaders at all levels of all societies lack vision, imagination, and the courage for calculated risk-taking. Republicans and Democrats in the United States cannot transcend their tired, counterproductive rhetoric about tax-cutting and entitlement protection. European Union leaders cannot escape the band-aid efforts to patch together a failing currency that must be re-made with more effective institutions. United Nations diplomats, especially those from Russia and China, continue to defend Iranian sovereignty as they watch that country pursue what everyone recognizes as a nuclear weapons program that will produce a regional war if it is not stopped soon.
We do not need to focus on politics alone. Take our “great” universities. Has anyone met a bold educational leader recently. The sexual abuse scandal at Penn State University, following recent scandals at the University of Miami and Ohio State, shows that the presidents of the world’s wealthiest and most distinguished institutions of higher education are asleep at the wheel. Universities are hemorrhaging money from academics, but they continue to pour resources into glitzy athletic programs that overpay coaches, under-educate students, and frequently break the law. Boosters at the University of Miami hired prostitutes for players. A coach at Penn State abused young boys. The story continues but university leaders do nothing systematic. They meekly apologize and move on with more of the same.
It is not too late for bold leaders to emerge. It is not too late for new directions. It is not too late to proclaim that the evident failures in our inherited institutions and policies mean that we must try something serious and something new. That is the discussion Americans should have in the 2012 presidential election. That is the discussion Europeans should have as they contend with new national governments and a failing currency. That is the discussion the international community should have about nuclear non-proliferation, inequality, and education for a new century.
I am a historian so I remain confident that the wheel of time will turn again, producing bold (probably young) new leaders. That is why I like the “Occupy” movement, which is now spreading from urban downtowns to college campuses. The students in sleeping bags and tents do not have the answers, but they are asking the right questions. Why should we accept limited horizons? Why should we support failed institutions and unimaginative leaders? Can’t we do better?
I hope our most ambitious and talented citizens our listening. Now is their time. Now is their opportunity. A time of bold change is upon us.
This blog post originally appeared at http://globalbrief.ca
Posted in Blog, Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Grand Strategy, history, Teaching | Tags: athletics, bold, Churchill, Democrat, EU, European Union, Leadership, non-proliferation, nuclear, Reagan, Republican, Roosevelt, strategy, vision | 2 Comments »
Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-building from the Founders to Obama (Free Press/Simon & Schuster, Fall 2011)
Americans are a nation-building people, and in Liberty’s Surest Guardian, Jeremi Suri looks to America’s history to see both what it has to offer to failed states around the world and what it should avoid.
More at the book website >
Jeremi Suri is the Mack Brown Distinguished Professor for Global Leadership, History, and Public Policy at the University of Texas at Austin. He is the author of five books on contemporary politics and foreign policy. In September 2011 he will publish a new book on the past and future of nation-building: Liberty's Surest Guardian: American Nation-Building from the Founders to Obama. Professor Suri's research and teaching have received numerous prizes. In 2007 Smithsonian Magazine named him one of America's "Top Young Innovators" in the Arts and Sciences. His writings appear widely in blogs and print media. Professor Suri is also a frequent public lecturer and guest on radio and television programs.